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Caltrops predictions for the near future of gaming by skip 02/23/2016, 6:05pm PST
fabio wrote:

A crash of both Kickstarter and the mobile/Facebook freemium game market.


Freemium won't crash. Smartphones are still growing in developing countries and that model is the only that can thrive in those markets where piracy rules. That said, they don't bring in the same revenue so growth will slow. It will also be limited to a few publishers who can market their game since it's so hard to stand out among the hundreds of thousands of games on the app marketplace. IP's will also become more important to attract a userbase. Kickstarter is already slowing down and I think will go the way of Groupon, present but irrelevant.

Nintendo will go the way of Sega. I can't see them lasting another generation. At best they'll put out the next Saturn that will quickly fail. Everyone has caught on that 99% of Wii games are garbage (Wii U has been out for over 3 years now and has only sold half as well as the Gamecube) and phones/tablets have gutted their hold on the portable game market (3DS out for over 4 years and has barely passed 50% of PSP sales). How often do you see kids playing portable Nintendo games compared to 8 years ago?


Mobile gaming did a lot of damage to consoles and Nintendo was the easiest to pick off since it easily ate away the casual market that they had always courted.

Possibly this will be the last generation of consoles as we know it? Microsoft is fucked (XBone is tied with Turbograph 16 for sales). Nintendo ran out of steam. PCs have closed the affordability gap, even blowing consoles out of the water once you take into account the massive digital distribution sales. Console makers tried to stay relevant with the home entertainment angle and nobody gave a shit. The consumer market is still dominated by people clueless enough to shop at Gamestop. Once they wise up and discover the concept of a Steam backlog, the whole industry is fucked.


If those people were going to discover Steam/GoG they would have by now. There's still something nice about a machine hooked up to the TV that you can game on with minimal fuss. Nintendo may exit this market but I don't see MS or Sony leaving. Sony won this generation and MS has too much money invested in developing a home theater hub to give up.

Other predictions:
- VR flops. Too expensive and too dorky. The best it can hope for is a niche market. Zuckerberg comes under some heat for making such a dumb acquisition.
- Learning nothing, lots of money is thrown at augmented reality
- Sony kills the Vita
- MS drops the price of the Xbone. They slowly realize Windows Phone will never take off and they are terribly positioned to be a theater hub and, unlike Nintendo, they don't even have any mobile traction. Too much money and investment to give up though.
- Nintendo NX will be able to connect to multiple cell phones
- The Witness wins more awards than it deserves
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Caltrops predictions for the near future of gaming? by fabio 02/20/2016, 1:01pm PST NEW
    The Xbone has sold more units than the 360 had at the same point in its life. by And PS4 has sold almost twice that. 02/20/2016, 3:01pm PST NEW
        I can't find one source that supports those numbers. Link? by fabio 02/21/2016, 3:16am PST NEW
            http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/01/ea-lets-slip NT by You can see the future, not the now 02/21/2016, 8:24am PST NEW
                "at least if EA's CFO is to believed" by fabio 02/21/2016, 9:09am PST NEW
                    Yeah, he's probably lying to make himself sound important. by I bet he's not even a real chief. 02/21/2016, 9:29am PST NEW
                        Execs never exaggerate performance claims by Gypsy King 02/21/2016, 10:39am PST NEW
                            I think you might be using an old version of Google. by An old, cheap, off-brand version. 02/21/2016, 11:48am PST NEW
    A crash of ... freemium NT by Wishful thinking? 02/20/2016, 4:17pm PST NEW
    All of the gaming geeks I know are buying new hotrod PCs to run their Rifts by Fullofkittens 02/20/2016, 6:53pm PST NEW
    In what way is Overwatch a MOBA? by Worm 02/20/2016, 10:08pm PST NEW
        Re: In what way is Overwatch a MOBA? by fabio 02/21/2016, 3:32am PST NEW
    Next wave MOBAs are looking more like SMITE, will be d-pad friendly by Entropy Stew 02/21/2016, 3:05am PST NEW
    I predict that if this graphic comes true at all it will fail horribly. by Ice Cream Jonsey 02/21/2016, 8:44am PST NEW
        Additional future prediction: Ubisoft will still not have given up on Uplay NT by fabio 02/21/2016, 8:46am PST NEW
            Re: Additional future prediction: Ubisoft will still not have given up on Uplay by Ice Cream Jonsey 02/21/2016, 8:57am PST NEW
                Re: Additional future prediction: Ubisoft will still not have given up on Uplay by fabio 02/21/2016, 9:14am PST NEW
                    GOG are still dicks, though. by Mischief Maker 02/21/2016, 11:40am PST NEW
                Re: Additional future prediction: Ubisoft will still not have given up on Uplay by CattleHumper 02/22/2016, 10:07am PST NEW
        Re: I predict that if this graphic comes true at all it will fail horribly by Mysterio 02/21/2016, 4:30pm PST NEW
        Re: I predict that if this graphic comes true at all it will fail horribly. by laudablepuss 02/22/2016, 7:14am PST NEW
            I have a story about this. NT by Fullofkittens 02/22/2016, 2:04pm PST NEW
                Wel what is it! NT by laudablepuss 02/24/2016, 7:04am PST NEW
                    OK HERE IT IS (tw: gamer dad story) by Fullofkittens 02/24/2016, 6:06pm PST NEW
                        I'm going to need several shots of scotch to get through this, stand by NT by laudablepuss 02/25/2016, 7:19am PST NEW
                            Fuck you! NT by Liver 02/25/2016, 8:11am PST NEW
                        This is Microsoft. by Ice Cream Jonsey 02/25/2016, 8:57am PST NEW
                            Your FREE Windows 10 upgrade is waiting... and waiting... NT by M$ 02/25/2016, 10:43am PST NEW
                                Is the call at this point to stick with 8? NT by fabio 02/25/2016, 11:31am PST NEW
                                    I don't know of a compelling reason to jump from 7 to 8 or 10. by Fullofkittens 02/25/2016, 11:41am PST NEW
                                        You can turn off most of the bad stuff in Win 10 by Entropy Stew 02/25/2016, 2:11pm PST NEW
                                            Yes, use 10. by laudablepuss 02/25/2016, 2:27pm PST NEW
    Re: Caltrops predictions for the near future of gaming? by Rafiki 02/21/2016, 8:51pm PST NEW
        Re: Caltrops predictions for the near future of gaming? by fabio 02/21/2016, 10:08pm PST NEW
            Re: Caltrops predictions for the near future of gaming? by Ice Cream Jonsey 02/21/2016, 11:30pm PST NEW
    This generation of VR headsets will flop. NT by Oom Shnibble 02/21/2016, 11:42pm PST NEW
        Cardboard will flop NT by Vested Id 02/22/2016, 4:20pm PST NEW
    Caltrops predictions for the near future of gaming by skip 02/23/2016, 6:05pm PST NEW
    One day all these kids playing Pokemon are going to grow up and become PC gamers NT by 3D Realms Shareholder Meeting, 1998 07/19/2016, 7:54am PDT NEW
 
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