|
|
Forum Overview
::
Balance of Power
|
|
|
by Mischief Maker 04/08/2016, 8:41pm PDT |
|
|
|
|
|
Holy fuck, Mozilla crashed right in the middle of me typing a detailed reply, so I'm cutting it down to the whole BERNIE SMASH issue which runs through your entire post.
This is something I told to blackwater a couple months ago during a debate we had over unions, I'm assuming you missed that post:
Mischief Maker wrote:
Now if your point is "this is how those monsters think!" then as someone who negotiates for a living, let me pop the hood and explain how positional negotiation (or haggling) actually works. One party asks for an amount, the other party gives a different amount, then they bounce number back and forth until they agree (maybe). The fact of the matter is, although haggling can last for hours, it's usually decided in the first thirty seconds by the initial asks, and the final agreement is almost always halfway between those asks. The rest is just an emotional endurance challenge.
You may have heard the rule of thumb that you should ask for twice as much as you want in a negotiation, but a really good negotiator knows the best ask has nothing to do with your needs and everything to do with guessing the other side's breaking point. If your client would be happy with $10k, and two lawyers walk in to represent the other side, you should ask for $250k. Because there is no way the other side would pay the fee for two lawyers if they thought only $10k was riding on the case. Will your client complain that you were being a rapscallion in his name when he's walking home with $90k more than he expected?
What you're characterizing as BERNIE SMASH is just the negotiation tactic of asking high. It's the smart move and one that's earned him the nickname "The Amendment King" over his years of service. What's more, you have the example that ASKING HIGH HAS DONE WONDERS FOR THE REPUBLICANS in negotiations for the past 16 years. This over-eagerness of the Democrats to compromise drives me fucking insane.
Now I'm going to go a little deeper into negotiation theory. Every negotiation happens at two levels: the substance level and the process level. Substance is the amount of money, or the language of a contract, or the visitation schedule of a child, etc. Process is the agreement to actually negotiate and what in what manner the negotiation will proceed. Now these two levels don't interact and making concessions on one level to try and change things on the other level is what I've come to call "The Obama Blunder." Here's an example:
You're walking down the street and a guy offers to sell you a loose cigarette for a dollar. (substance) You reply that you don't want to buy cigarettes. (process) The guy then says he'll sell you one for 75 cents. (substance) You reply that you don't want to buy cigarettes. (process) The guy drops his offer to 50 cents. (substance) You walk away. Later on you have a hankering for a cigarette so you approach the guy and ask, "Hey, you said earlier that you'd sell me a cigarette for 50 cents?" (substance) The guy smiles and confirms. You reply, "I'll give you ten cents."
The moral of the story is, if he noticed that you weren't agreeing to process, he could have shifted gears to ask why you weren't interested in buying cigarettes, to which you would have responded that you didn't want one now, but might want one later. In that scenario he could have given his starting offer of one dollar to your starting offer of ten cents and you would have haggled to 55 cents. Instead he barreled along at the substance level and made several price concessions that ignored your refusal to negotiate and when you finally did agree to start haggling he started at a lower 50 cent offer to your 10 cents and ended up selling you the cigarette for only 30 cents.
This is the kind of blunder Obama has made with republicans over and over and over again. Republicans refuse to negotiate, Obama makes a substantive concession to entice them to the negotiating table. Eventual agreement (if any) is a pale shadow of his original intent. Instead of weakening his starting bid, he should have focused on why the Republicans were refusing to negotiate and creating a climate where they had no choice but to participate. You can do that by playing hardball. Making a media stink about the Republicans allowing Americans to die because they refused to speak with a black man could be one potential avenue. Instead he barrels ahead on substance as if they were negotiating and offers a milquetoast moderate who thinks Citizens United is A-OK as his Supreme Court nominee.
In this election I see Hillary making the same blunder already. "$15 an hour is too much! I'm going to start at the negotiating table only asking for $12 an hour to entice the Republicans to the negotiating table." It doesn't work that way. Bernie Sanders is a better negotiator that Hillary Clinton.
In addition, I don't believe Hillary Clinton has a better chance against Trump. Her rallies, the few that she has, are tiny compared to Sanders and Trump. The failure of Jeb Bush shows that establishment support isn't enough in this election. And let's face facts, Hillary Clinton only ever won ONE election, her NY senate seat, and that was a gimme after her original stronger opponent Rudy Giuliani dropped out. Finally, the country is currently divided 1/3rd democrat, 1/3rd republican, and 1/3rd independent. Trump is drawing in the independents, so is Sanders, Hillary IS NOT. If you want to prevent a Trump presidency, Sanders is the safer choice. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Don't you fucking disappoint me, Wisconsin! by Mischief Maker 04/05/2016, 5:37pm PDT
Oh god a little sprite bernie appeared NT by Worm 04/05/2016, 6:21pm PDT
AP called it for Bernie! Now the question is by how much? NT by Mischief Maker 04/05/2016, 7:04pm PDT
13 point lead? Not bad! by Mischief Maker 04/06/2016, 5:13am PDT
Not that you'll hear about it in the mainstream press. NT by Quest for the Dean Scream 04/07/2016, 5:53pm PDT
Holy fuck. by Mischief Maker 04/07/2016, 7:00pm PDT
Interesting by Mysterio 04/07/2016, 10:59pm PDT
Now he's getting a fist-bump from the pope?! What a rollercoaster of a campaign! by Mischief Maker 04/08/2016, 9:47am PDT
Should I be proud of my Republican neighbors? by Mischief Maker 04/05/2016, 7:51pm PDT
Whaaaaaaat the hell NT by Vested Id 04/06/2016, 3:42am PDT
Why do you love Sanders? by just curious 04/08/2016, 9:58am PDT
and I'm asking because you normally seem well informed on this stuff by just curious 04/08/2016, 10:00am PDT
Re: Why do you love Sanders? by Mischief Maker 04/08/2016, 11:29am PDT
Refer to my long posts below for more details, but by just curious 04/08/2016, 6:46pm PDT
Why do you love Kool-Aid? NT by Even more curious 04/08/2016, 2:51pm PDT
It washes away the bad taste left by this video: by Mischief Maker 04/08/2016, 3:51pm PDT
Hey dumbass I was insulting Curious not you NT by Wall Street commited no crimes 04/08/2016, 5:42pm PDT
a simplistic, emotional insult. Thanks. Have you seen the Daily News interview? by just curious 04/08/2016, 6:33pm PDT
Re: Why do you love Sanders? by The Happiness Engine 04/08/2016, 3:57pm PDT
Not being able to prove the execs knowingly committed fraud was the problem by (reply to MM too) 04/08/2016, 5:41pm PDT
Sanders' plan to rein in banks amounts to praying for a miracle by Mysterio 04/09/2016, 11:13am PDT
That's another problem with Bernie by just curious 04/09/2016, 6:48pm PDT
Re: Why do you love Sanders? by Vested Id 04/08/2016, 5:07pm PDT
Re: Why do you love Sanders? by (reply to MM too) 04/08/2016, 6:11pm PDT
Leftist coalitions have been a wreck since the fall of unions by skip 04/09/2016, 11:55am PDT
The purity test obsession and niche assholes is what's killing progressives by just curious 04/09/2016, 1:11pm PDT
Psst! Scroll down! NT by Mischief Maker 04/09/2016, 1:15pm PDT
Re: Why do you love Sanders? by Vested Id 04/11/2016, 2:31am PDT
Re: Why do you love Sanders? by Mischief Maker 04/08/2016, 8:41pm PDT
A little more on Sanders' legislative record before bed by Mischief Maker 04/08/2016, 8:49pm PDT
Rolling Stone? NT by really? 04/09/2016, 10:17am PDT
You would prefer something by the New York Times? by Mischief Maker 04/09/2016, 12:45pm PDT
Going DURR on the source is really weak. by Mysterio 04/09/2016, 12:51pm PDT
Bernie himself is the best source by just curious 04/09/2016, 7:06pm PDT
How 'bout this? by Mischief Maker 04/17/2016, 7:42pm PDT
So he set a record for amendments, and not a single one made it through? by just curious 04/09/2016, 10:53am PDT
Re: So he set a record for amendments, and not a single one made it through? by Mischief Maker 04/09/2016, 12:51pm PDT
Also: by Mischief Maker 04/09/2016, 12:57pm PDT
(This is the guy who inspired the character of Gordon Gekko) NT by Mischief Maker 04/09/2016, 1:00pm PDT
I'm trying to take you seriously here by just curious 04/09/2016, 1:15pm PDT
No you're not. by Mischief Maker 04/09/2016, 1:33pm PDT
You're getting your ass kicked. NT by Mysterio 04/09/2016, 3:16pm PDT
^ the substance of a Sanders supporter NT by just curious 04/09/2016, 7:07pm PDT
Guys, this person is just curious and of high substance. NT by Kenny Mayne 04/10/2016, 10:24pm PDT
I just fucking hate women. Is that an acceptable reason? NT by Worm 04/09/2016, 4:10pm PDT
Only if your hate is honest by Issue an emergency CALTROPS CARES! 04/09/2016, 4:44pm PDT
Re: Only if your hate is honest by Mischief Maker 04/09/2016, 5:07pm PDT
This is why I'm not bothered by Sanders's silly shoot-for-the moon goals. by Fullofkittens 04/09/2016, 6:54pm PDT
That style of negotiation only works if the other side is by just curious 04/09/2016, 7:51pm PDT
also only if you're willing to scale down the initial offer by just curious 04/09/2016, 8:00pm PDT
I was alluding to huge funding, weapon deals by Not Congressional bills 04/09/2016, 8:57pm PDT
Down with old white men patriarchy! In with Bernie! NT by an actual Binro opinion 04/09/2016, 6:33pm PDT
speaking of independent Senators by just curious 04/09/2016, 6:29pm PDT
Why is people switching party affiliation such a big issue? by Worm 04/09/2016, 7:53pm PDT
In principle? It's not by just curious 04/09/2016, 8:01pm PDT
But that's a different old jewish man, right? NT by Worm 04/09/2016, 8:15pm PDT
You're killing laudablepuss, Larry! NT by Walter Sobchak 04/09/2016, 8:52pm PDT
okay, now you're just making stuff up by just curious 04/09/2016, 7:37pm PDT
holy shit, you thought you were telling jokes this whole time?! NT by speaking frankily 04/09/2016, 7:53pm PDT
He's less overexcited than you about all of this. NT by Worm 04/09/2016, 8:00pm PDT
another "I dont care about another yet topic" Worm post ding grats NT by +1 04/09/2016, 8:20pm PDT
I care about the topic, jc is far more excitable as anti-bernie than mm is pro by Worm 04/09/2016, 8:41pm PDT
Let's try this from a different angle. by Mischief Maker 04/10/2016, 5:45am PDT
Media loves drama. They're out to "get" anyone. NT by Do you think they love Clinton? 04/10/2016, 6:21pm PDT
Re: Media loves drama. They're out to "get" anyone. by Mischief Maker 04/15/2016, 6:56am PDT
I wonder if there's a better source for media coverage by than some photo bitching about CNN 04/16/2016, 8:45am PDT
"Bernie Sanders says private meeting with Pope Francis is not an endorsement" NT by Washington Post Headline 04/16/2016, 8:16am PDT
Bernie wins by double digits again in Wyoming! by Mischief Maker 04/09/2016, 5:18pm PDT
Yeah, but check the allocation after superdelegates by not enough for Berning Man 04/09/2016, 9:05pm PDT
Berning Man! I'm stealing that NT by perfect description of Sanders base 04/12/2016, 10:22pm PDT
This primary represents the eternal battle between Hippies and Yuppies. NT by Mischief Maker 04/14/2016, 4:27pm PDT
Re: Don't you fucking disappoint me, Wisconsin! by ja 04/11/2016, 12:17pm PDT
Re: Don't you fucking disappoint me, Wisconsin! by Historio 04/11/2016, 2:09pm PDT
Re: Don't you fucking disappoint me, Wisconsin! by ja 04/17/2016, 1:15pm PDT
So... white people attract rain clouds? by Mischief Maker 04/17/2016, 1:30pm PDT
Re: Don't you fucking disappoint me, Wisconsin! by ja 04/17/2016, 1:34pm PDT
Re: Don't you fucking disappoint me, Wisconsin! by ja 04/17/2016, 1:39pm PDT
Re: Don't you fucking disappoint me, Wisconsin! by ja 04/17/2016, 1:43pm PDT
Re: Don't you fucking disappoint me, Wisconsin! by ja watching 04/17/2016, 3:12pm PDT
Re: Don't you fucking disappoint me, Wisconsin! by ja watching 04/17/2016, 3:14pm PDT
They are great jumping off points for additional discussions, however. by Kenny Mayne 04/17/2016, 3:18pm PDT
|
|
|
|
|