|
by blackwater 06/24/2016, 1:39pm PDT |
|
|
|
|
|
A little less than half of the UK's exports went to Europe last year. Meanwhile, somewhere between 15%-20% of the EU's exports go to the UK. A trade agreement is much more important to the UK's economy than it would be for the EU's economy. And the EU has every incentive to make the trade negotiation painful, to set an example to anyone else who might want to leave the club. If there is a recession they have an easy scapegoat to blame it on.
There's no reason to believe that people will be reasonable in trade negotiations, even when the parties involved aren't pissed off at each other. The Doha round of free trade talks has been going for what, 10 years with no progress? Even if there is a trade agreement, there will be tons of regulations that may or may not be the same between the EU and UK that may keep goods from flowing between them. The EU even regulates the curvature of bananas-- they're not going to let a non-member just dump whatever goods it wants into the common market.
Finance is also a very big part of the UK's economy. And it's going to take a huge hit from this. Eurocrats in France and Germany have been trying to chip away at London's dominance as a financial center for a long time. It's difficult to see how London will survive Brexit as a financial center. Without visa-free travel, getting talented people from the EU to immigrate will be harder. France and Germany will have every excuse in the world to set up regulations that make it necessary for finance to be conducted in Paris or Frankfurt rather than London. The big banks are already talking about setting up branches in other European cities.
The UK had the best of both worlds with the old arrangement. Free access to the common market, but opt-outs for all the stuff they didn't like. Free movement of labor, but a position on the map that kept out most migrants. They didn't even need to use the euro. It was perfect for a service-based economy, which the UK was.
Now, it's hard to see what the future will bring. Scotland and North Ireland might secede from the UK-- they are very pro-European and aren't going to be happy with the results of this vote. London as a financial center is effectively dead. The government will probably fall (in the British sense of getting a new PM and/or party). The other guy, Jeremy Coryn, wants to scrap Britain's nukes and basically spend the next decade or two replaying the economic stagnation and military and cultural decline of the 1970s. Dark days indeed. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
How did you British guys and g-- guys vote in the referendum? NT by Ice Cream Jonsey 06/23/2016, 9:20pm PDT
I don't know, but if any of your portfolio is based in in foreign investments NT by I'd sell, oh, yesterday 06/23/2016, 9:32pm PDT
Many on FB are shocked that John Oliver video didn't swing the vote to Remain NT by skip 06/24/2016, 12:26am PDT
oh shit NT by goes to dump Euro assets 06/24/2016, 2:57am PDT
Re: How did you British guys and g-- guys vote in the referendum? by laudablepuss 06/24/2016, 7:11am PDT
It's a fantastic result. by Gutsby 06/24/2016, 12:07pm PDT
Some Remainers were condescending douchebags, but Brexit is still terrible by blackwater 06/24/2016, 1:39pm PDT
British pound is still the strongest currency in the world, right? NT by Mysterio 06/24/2016, 1:57pm PDT
Re: Some Remainers were condescending douchebags, but Brexit is still terrible by Gutsby 06/24/2016, 3:46pm PDT
Re: Some Remainers were condescending douchebags, but Brexit is still terrible by blackwater 06/24/2016, 7:40pm PDT
YOU CAN'T CUT FUNDING FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION! YOU WILL REGRET THIS! NT by The SimCity guy 06/24/2016, 8:04pm PDT
Regarding Brexit by Mysterio 06/28/2016, 12:06pm PDT
Nativist. And yes. NT by laudablepuss 06/28/2016, 3:53pm PDT
the "poorer" countries by come on, just say it 06/28/2016, 4:01pm PDT
and that example is retarded, here's a much better one by come on, just say it 06/28/2016, 4:20pm PDT
All conservatives long for the Articles of Confederation by laudablepuss 06/28/2016, 5:59pm PDT
Get the fuck out everyone, this pasty faggot read a BOOK! NT by And he wants us all to know it! 06/29/2016, 8:51am PDT
nice dead trees post, updated my reading list NT by Welcome to Omsk 06/29/2016, 9:46am PDT
Re: and that example is retarded, here's a much better one by Mysterio 06/28/2016, 6:35pm PDT
Re: the "poorer" countries by Mysterio 06/28/2016, 6:11pm PDT
Re: the "poorer" countries by SWEDEN YES! 06/28/2016, 7:58pm PDT
Middle Easterners make up 3.5% of Sweden's population NT by sup josh 06/29/2016, 8:19am PDT
I lived in Sweden for fourteen years buddy. NT by Mysterio 06/29/2016, 8:45am PDT
I lived in Murrica for forty years! That's like a doctorate in domestic polisci! NT by born here all my life 06/29/2016, 9:35am PDT
Now it's 15 years. Keep trying me. NT by Mysterio 06/29/2016, 6:29pm PDT
Re: Now it's 15 years. Keep trying me. by Positively Sweden 06/29/2016, 8:16pm PDT
You just made it sixteen years, mister! NT by That guy from The Breakfast Club 06/29/2016, 9:05pm PDT
Did you move there from clusterfuckistan or trashcanistan? NT by Just so we can keep track 06/29/2016, 9:27pm PDT
If anything this does prove how retarded the whole pro Brexit crowd is by sup josh 06/29/2016, 10:46pm PDT
Re: If anything this does prove how retarded the whole pro Brexit crowd is by no 06/29/2016, 11:03pm PDT
Perfectly fine by Meanwhile in Sweden 07/01/2016, 12:59am PDT
I DON'T TRUST THE LIEBERAL MEDIA! by *man driving into oncoming traffic* 07/02/2016, 9:22pm PDT
Yeah this idiot is definitely josh by sup josh 07/02/2016, 10:03pm PDT
I am eloh, come from the dead, NT by here to tell you all, I shall tell 07/03/2016, 5:22am PDT
I love the fear mongering dolts who try to pass off their position as nuanced by sup josh 06/29/2016, 10:58pm PDT
Re: I love the fear mongering dolts who try to pass off their position as nua by no 06/29/2016, 11:07pm PDT
You'll be receiving me any minute now, honest ... by £350 million 06/30/2016, 8:22am PDT
What a fucking idiot. by no 06/30/2016, 9:23am PDT
Re: What a fucking idiot. by laudablepuss 06/30/2016, 10:25am PDT
Maybe by Dr. No 06/30/2016, 11:04am PDT
Re: What a fucking idiot. by £350 million 07/01/2016, 6:06am PDT
1. That figure has been proven false by sup josh 06/30/2016, 12:20pm PDT
Yeah, unattractive folk make bad politicians NT by Oh and if your name was Drumpf 07/01/2016, 1:19am PDT
It's an entire country going Galt NT by Rand fans are idiots QED 07/01/2016, 1:31am PDT
It's more like union guys bitching that they have to pay dues NT by wait it's literally that 07/01/2016, 4:00am PDT
Would you want Merkel dictating how to run your country? by Oom Shnibble 07/03/2016, 4:07pm PDT
She ought to be dick-taking in her own cuntry NT by she's a girl 07/03/2016, 5:30pm PDT
Ah, yes one of the holy trinity by Oom Shnibble 07/03/2016, 7:15pm PDT
Ha! Ha! I'm Taking My Own Brexit NT by Nigel Farage 07/04/2016, 2:30am PDT
When $2.1 Trillion evaporates overnight, you KNOW someone's gonna get clipped! NT by MM 07/04/2016, 5:26am PDT
$2.1 trillion cloudpounds to rain down any second on NHS NT by Get out your buckets! 07/04/2016, 5:45am PDT
Markets are back up by Mysterio 07/05/2016, 9:35pm PDT
Long term outlook... by Oom Shnibble 07/05/2016, 10:10pm PDT
Nobody reasonable said the UK was doomed, just that it would be shitty by blackwater 07/07/2016, 9:15am PDT
Re: Ha! Ha! I'm Taking My Own Brexit by blackwater 07/09/2016, 10:45am PDT
The only reasonable argument for Brexit is to tighten immigration controls by blackwater 07/07/2016, 9:33am PDT
Re: The only reasonable argument for Brexit is to tighten immigration controls by Dr. No 07/07/2016, 10:43am PDT
:( NT by Boris "Mongloid" Johnson 07/07/2016, 12:55pm PDT
This here is the simplest argument against Brexit by Dennis Leary 07/07/2016, 9:23pm PDT
Re: This here is the simplest argument against Brexit by Dr. No 07/07/2016, 10:00pm PDT
It probably would be NT by #BLM 07/08/2016, 12:16am PDT
ayyyy NT by :( 07/09/2016, 11:55am PDT
|
|