Caltrops - Operation: Hammer Time - Counterpoint, maybe...

Forum Overview :: Operation: Hammer Time

by Chairman mao 04/15/2003, 6:56pm PDT

I'd like to preface with pointing out that what I'm about to write here isn't necessarily my crystal-clear view on the matter, just some thoughts:

Damocles wrote:

how do you get from all that to "creating peace in Israel and Palestine"? Even if Sharon says "ok, we'll take down settlements", his right-wing coalition will revolt, and while the Palestinians aren't happy about losing Iraq they're going to be keenly aware that the relations between pro-US governments and anti-US populations are going to take a serious hit for this, which means either a) the rhetoric against Israel will ratchet up to keep the public on side in these countries or b) there will be revolutions, with anti-US regimes taking power.

The question then may be "so what?". Its been pointed out several times now that the neocons look hungrily at attacking even fairly long-standing allies such as Egypt and Pakistan in the long run. All the more reason to do so if their governments are toppled and replaced with big red America-hating bullseyes. Then, it seems, the US is free to trounce them militarily, theoretically removing the only terrorist threat of substance, Weapons of Mass Destruction.
We can deal with the occasional gay suicide bombing, paricularly if they are directed at soldiers in the field. What the administration absolutely cannot tolerate is the idea of a nerve gas attack on the NYC subway.

Including, possibly, groups of Palestinians anxious to use those governmental resources to attack Israel as soon as the U.S. becomes distrated by another shiny (North Korea) object.

Which is the primary reason the Bush administration insists on a diplomatic solution to that one. Which seems to finally be moving thanks to the recent spectacular asskicking issued Iraq.

And lets not forget that having just been completely ignored and sidelined, Europe, Russia, India, China, and everybody else are going to be anxious to create "multipolarity", which will likely mean more nukes all around, belligerent social policy, and maybe a new cold war.

Calm thy jerking knee. A new cold war would require a bipolar world, not a multipolar one. New arms race, almost certainly. If it came to such a scenario it would be a nucelar age-of-empires sorta thing. See, the problem here is that none of those nations represent enough clout to stop the US dead in its tracks diplomatically, save maybe Britain. They most certainly aren't going to work together to do it because it would mean nothing short of presenting a unified military counterbalance to the US. That is something the US could nip in the Diplomatic bud with relative ease. The US outstrips the next three nations (Britain, France, Russia) militarily and does do with less than 4% of its GDP. A new arms race would only play right to the neocons strengths. They would have all the reasons they could ever need to justify massive spending before Congress, all the while whittling away the gains of Liberals in the US. The goal, as is stated in their own whitepapers, is to create a cycle of war and crisis that eventually becomes yet another military-industrial money machine. Better that than this, IMO.

China makes loud noises but doesn't represent a threat any greater than Saddam did in GW1, nukes notwithstanding. For all their talk the only things the Chinese really give a shit about is Taiwan and 'the North Korean buffer'. Further obstinance by the US on the North Korean issue will lead to a re-armed Japan in about ten years. That will serve to check China nicely and secure US economic interests in the region. India stands to gain from a smashed middle east nearly as much as the US and Israel do; they're out. Russia is bankrupt. France is already gravitating back towards the US, as they can plainly see which way the oil money is rupturing. Germany is toothless.

Moreover, all of these nations don't hate the US so much that they are willing to join the side of the likes of Iran. Russia, China, and India hate Islamic militancy far more than the US does.