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Re: You are correct, spastic (or plastic) is more points by Ray of Light 07/21/2008, 8:21pm PDT
Bunyip wrote:

I remember reading some Scrabble expert who said that defensive play disappeared in the upper echelons of competitors because it turns out you do better just getting the best score every single time.
Defensive plays don't work. A mistake many beginning players make is to look at an open triple word and imagine the worst-case opponent response, when the average outcome might be only 1/5 as bad as that. My own style eschews defensiveness and tends toward outright recklessness, which costs me wins but attracts action from weaker players (a concept I borrowed from poker).

In this problem, playing spastic off EVENTS versus SKI is about the same points for you, so it's worth looking at the defensive merits of each play. Also the tile count is low enough that the worst case is not too far fetched and the math is graspable.

"Just get the best score" appeals to my prejudices since thinking about what the other player has turns the game into Chess and I'm fucking terrible at Chess.
I try to think in terms of a cloud of holdings the opponent could have, and guess at the likely cost of any opening I give him. Most of the time this cost is low, sometimes there are exceptions. When 30 tiles are gone and the Z is unaccounted for, I don't put an A behind a power square. If 40 tiles are gone without a blank or S appearing, hanging a universal-adapter word like WIN out in the wind is asking to get creamed.

Very early on, I prefer churning tiles over actual points: given a choice between ROTTEN for 10 points and TON for 14, I'll take the 6-letter play to double my chance of drawing something good. In the middle, it plays like this guy says and you go for points. At the end, the board tightens up again and it gets easier to predict your opponent's holdings. Very often you can see that your 8-point play is going to earn you a 28-point counterpunch with no counter-counter-opportunities, and common sense compels you to prefer a safer play.
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bingoed PACIFISTS by Ray of Light 07/19/2008, 2:54pm PDT NEW
    Re: bingoed PACIFISTS by Bunyip 07/20/2008, 5:57pm PDT NEW
        Oh, 3 minutes. NT by Well, okay. 07/20/2008, 5:59pm PDT NEW
        Mischief Maker more like Mischief FAKER NT by Jerry Whorebach 07/20/2008, 6:35pm PDT NEW
        A better trap would be picking a game that's actually fun =\ NT by FABIO 07/20/2008, 6:36pm PDT NEW
            OUTTATIME by Ray of Light 07/21/2008, 8:44pm PDT NEW
        You are correct, spastic (or plastic) is more points by Ray of Light 07/20/2008, 8:13pm PDT NEW
            Re: You are correct, spastic (or plastic) is more points by Ice Cream Jonsey 07/20/2008, 8:16pm PDT NEW
                It's complicated! (more complicated than well-formed HREFs) (front page burn) by Ray of Light 07/21/2008, 8:40pm PDT NEW
                    Yeah, when they whip out the spellbook to the first Wizardry, it's usually a sig NT by Ice Cream Jonsey 07/21/2008, 8:47pm PDT NEW
                    OMG you don't know DURIAN the "King of Fruits"? Its famous and smells like shit NT by Fussbett 07/22/2008, 3:57am PDT NEW
                        Mangosteen. NT by Creexuls, a monster >:3 07/22/2008, 4:20am PDT NEW
                            SO DONT FUCKING BUY IT, DONT FUCKING DRINK IT, DONT FUCKING CLICK MY LINKS. NT by Lowtax 07/22/2008, 4:24am PDT NEW
                        Show us your durian then, Fuzz. by Quétinbec 07/22/2008, 7:32am PDT NEW
                            Somebody should make you a Kiwi Kraze forum already by Bananadine 07/22/2008, 10:54am PDT NEW
                    Hey.... this was because I use the & character directly? NT by Ice Cream Jonsey 08/02/2008, 10:01pm PDT NEW
            Re: You are correct, spastic (or plastic) is more points by Bunyip 07/20/2008, 8:25pm PDT NEW
                Re: You are correct, spastic (or plastic) is more points by Ray of Light 07/21/2008, 8:21pm PDT NEW
 
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