Forum Overview :: Balance of Power
 
Interesting take on how to predict presidency wins by skip 11/08/2016, 10:21pm PST
http://qz.com/823122/an-american-university-history-professor-who-has-accurately-predicted-three-decades-of-us-presidential-races-says-donald-trump-will-win-the-us-election/

Lichtman’s system, based on his study of the presidential election cycles between 1860 and 1980, doesn’t rely on polling data, demographic breakdowns, or other intensive number-crunching. If six or more of the “key” statements outlined in his Predicting the Next President book are true, the system favors the party in power. Six or more false statements indicate that the incumbent party will lose the White House. The keys, as articulated by the Post:

Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.


Basically, the if the incumbent president is hated enough the opponent will win no matter what - like Obama did after GWB.
PREVIOUS NEXT REPLY QUOTE
 
The official election results and headlines thread by skip 11/07/2016, 6:35am PST NEW
    Nashville and Memphis are big blue cities. by pinback 11/07/2016, 2:17pm PST NEW
        Nah. There are many other Southern/Western states that would turn blue before NT by Tennessee. Trump has a 10 point lea 11/07/2016, 7:18pm PST NEW
    My prediction... by Roop 11/08/2016, 11:29am PST NEW
    2016's worst predictions and Deadspin weighs in by skip 11/08/2016, 1:42pm PST NEW
        Scocca didn't even have the worst prediction by suprisingly 06/30/2018, 3:32pm PDT NEW
    Holy fuck NT by skip 11/08/2016, 7:26pm PST NEW
    Interesting take on how to predict presidency wins by skip 11/08/2016, 10:21pm PST NEW
        It's even simpler than that by fabio 11/09/2016, 1:12am PST NEW
 
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