Caltrops - Balance of Power





	[quote name="Nate Copper"]...was laughable when announced, and only appreciated in value now. Maybe you forgot :^) [quote]he almost seems to be arguing that 538 shouldn't take into account new information or polling results to prevent their model from being too noisy[/quote] Constant course correction would strike me as less of a prediction model, and more about trying to meet a snapshot of current sentiment. Polling stands to be as strong as the sample set, accuracy of the weighting, honesty of respondents etc. Mr. Silver probably isn't the only one tanking credibility. But what do I know? Maybe life <i>is</i> better being a <s>math major</s> BAEcon in the wrong. [quote]Silver's problems is that he discounted polls even when it was clear that Trump wasn't an anomaly. Same thing happened with Brexit with pompous pundits declaring there was no way Britain would exit despite polls showing the vote was really fucking close.[/quote] This we can agree on. Let's enjoy some <font color="limegreen"><i>HIGH NATE SILVER</i></font> [quote]<b>High Nate Silver</b> ?<font color=lightgreen>@NateSilver420</font> <font color="grey"><a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver420/status/795078190133891074">Nov 5</a></font> i want to tell you the happy good numbers you want to hear but sometimes i get too high to figure them out no need to be a dick about it <b>High Nate Silver</b> ??<font color=lightgreen>@NateSilver420</font> <font color="grey"><a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver420/status/794383114126721024">Nov 3</a></font> got so high i fell asleep and dreamed the Cubs won the world series but haha i know that's statistically impossible <b>High Nate Silver</b> ?<font color=lightgreen>@NateSilver420</font> <font color="grey"><a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver420/status/793584586278203392">Nov 1</a></font> That moment when you go "oh shit there's an actual election in a week and these poll numbers are gonna be expected to reflect reality" #fml [/quote][/quote]