Forum Overview :: Balance of Power
 
It was in regards to the 3% prediction of the Republican nominee's path by Nate Copper 11/06/2016, 4:55pm PST
...was laughable when announced, and only appreciated in value now. Maybe you forgot :^)

he almost seems to be arguing that 538 shouldn't take into account new information or polling results to prevent their model from being too noisy

Constant course correction would strike me as less of a prediction model, and more about trying to meet a snapshot of current sentiment. Polling stands to be as strong as the sample set, accuracy of the weighting, honesty of respondents etc. Mr. Silver probably isn't the only one tanking credibility. But what do I know? Maybe life is better being a math major BAEcon in the wrong.

Silver's problems is that he discounted polls even when it was clear that Trump wasn't an anomaly. Same thing happened with Brexit with pompous pundits declaring there was no way Britain would exit despite polls showing the vote was really fucking close.

This we can agree on.

Let's enjoy some HIGH NATE SILVER
High Nate Silver ?@NateSilver420 Nov 5
i want to tell you the happy good numbers you want to hear but sometimes i get too high to figure them out no need to be a dick about it

High Nate Silver ??@NateSilver420 Nov 3
got so high i fell asleep and dreamed the Cubs won the world series but haha i know that's statistically impossible

High Nate Silver ?@NateSilver420 Nov 1
That moment when you go "oh shit there's an actual election in a week and these poll numbers are gonna be expected to reflect reality" #fml
PREVIOUS NEXT REPLY QUOTE
 
Has Nate Silver been right about anything this election? by Why, Jerry? 11/05/2016, 2:37pm PDT NEW
    Cu Later by Nate 'three percent' Copper 11/05/2016, 9:50pm PDT NEW
        Beating the odds doesn't change the odds by skip 11/06/2016, 9:36am PST NEW
            Bias admitted NT by but the gloating isn't in hindsight 11/06/2016, 2:25pm PST NEW
                You're gloating b/c they predicted >90% primary results correctly? NT by skip 11/06/2016, 3:23pm PST NEW
                    It was in regards to the 3% prediction of the Republican nominee's path by Nate Copper 11/06/2016, 4:55pm PST NEW
                        It's a good thing Silver refused to admit he's wrong. Oh wait. by skip 11/06/2016, 6:11pm PST NEW
 
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