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by Senor Barborito 02/01/2003, 9:08pm PST |
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Zebco Fuckface wrote:
Cyrris wrote:
Senor Barborito wrote:
I'm not for a US friendly dictator, I'm for an Iraq-friendly dictator.
--SB
Like I said, pure fantasy.
Granted, Iraq as a US colony has a very lucrative "cha-ching" ring to it, especially when it comes to a stable oil supply. But I'm not foolish enough to believe that the Iraqis are honestly saying "oh yes, please occupy our country and teach our women and children your Infidel ways." I think they're saying "please kill this secular pig so we can go back to sacrificing our children to Allah", ASSUMING they are truly against Hussein (I doubt enough of them are). Untill you can convince me that the Iraqis will drop their backward religion and support us in any future fight AGAINST Islam and all the other ignorant countries (Saudi Arabia), I maintain that this is probably one of the worst ideas to come out of Dubya's Presidency yet. Besides, the man has all but admitted he's out for revenge (after all, Hussein is the guy who tried to kill his dad).
As I tried to say in my earlier post, I'm not convinced but I'm listening. If you can provide the data, I will read it. But please spare me the "but they're being oppressed and 500 million children will die" sob story (yet another reason I believe they will attack us at the first opportunity).
-Cyrris
A fully rebuilt Iraq will add about 3% to the world's daily oil production; there's no "take the darkie's oil" angle to this. Hell, all the oil industry types oppose the war; they'd rather peacefully do business with Saddam.
Iraq isn't a hotbed of religious radicalism, either. For one thing, Saddam's murdered all the Imams, and for another, they never were religious wackjobs like SA or Iran.
If you want the national security argument, just go read Pollack.
The US Department of Energy lists that OPEC accounts for 39.24% of the world's oil supply here. I got this number by taking the millions of barrels oil supply from OPEC (30.1 millions of barrels per day) and dividing by the world total supply (76.7 millions of barrels per day).
Now, as far as oil *EXPORTS* go, OPEC.org, if you take the export numbers for 2001 for each member nation and add them together, claims 19.8808 millions of barrels per day. You'll note that 'other non-EUCD' is listed in the DOE chart as consuming 11.2 millions of barrels per day. Simple math tells us that OPEC nations then consume roughly 10.3 millions of barrels per day which makes a lot of sense considering that the remaining .9 millions of bpd are left to nations not in the OECD, nor OPEC, nor all of Asia including the former Soviet nations and China, nor all of Europe. In short .9 is what the bulk of the extremely 3rd world nations in Africa and South America consume.
Of the 19.8808 millions of barrels per day exported by OPEC, Iraq represents 1.7102 millions of bpd or 8.6% of OPEC's current output, which when multiplied by 39.24% equates to 3.4% of the world's oil supply.
In short Iraq is already at the statistic the US Department of State infers they might be at after another seven years if everything goes flawlessly here. Which is to say that if the war goes flawlessly and the dust has settled by May-June, every increase in production beyond current levels makes a liar out of the DoS.
Not exactly the strongest argument, but maybe we should look a little closer - what about future supply? What does the US potentially gain here?
If we add all the numbers for proven crude reserves on OPECs site we find that Iraq has 112.5 of the 846.01 billion barrels in OPEC's reserves. When you divide this out, you see that Iraq has 13.3% of OPECs reserves. Now that looks very interesting compared to the 8.6% export, doesn't it? That looks like a good amount of unexploited oil. If one were to take OPEC, subtract Iraq from it completely, and work out a billions of barrels per day (0.018706) to proven billions of barrels total remaining (733.509) ratio (which I'll call 'efficiency' short for 'efficiency of exploitation'), it would come out as 0.000025502073. Iraq's personal 'efficiency' ratio works out to 0.0017102/112.5 or 0.0000152017(77777 repeating).
0.000015201777 divided by 0.000025502073 = 59.63% 'efficiency' when compared to the rest of OPEC. In case you're wondering why I didn't just divide 8.6% current output by 13.3% reserve (64.66%) - those numbers would have included Iraq's own 'efficiency.'
So Iraq is only operating at roughly 59.63% efficiency relative to the rest of OPEC. At baseline 100% efficiency it would be exporting (1.7102 millions of bpd * 100) / 59.3 = 2.88398 millions of barrels per day. A total increase of 1.17378 millions of barrels per day, OR in terms of current market value ($33.51/barrel), $39,333,367.8 a day, or $14.36 *billion* a year in oil added to the global market. This only when simply meeting the *average* of OPEC, to say nothing of exceeding it.
The US clearly won't see all of that money, but control of the country will provide current administration-friendly US oil companies significant leverage in forging 'special deals' with Iraqi production facilities (if not outright takeover), especially any potential new ones. So it is likely that in the event of a war, the bulk of that money would be hitting the US economy (or perhaps simply the oil itself?) first, and to be quite frank it will probably be hitting the coffers of oil companies in which the current administration has significant vested interests. It should also be noted that the introduction of US technology can only serve to increase Iraqi 'efficiency' for obvious reasons.
There's your war booty.
--SB |
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Iraq Crap by Zebco Fuckface 01/31/2003, 5:08pm PST 
Re: Iraq Crap by Mischief Maker 01/31/2003, 5:38pm PST
Re: Iraq Crap by Zebco Fuckface 01/31/2003, 6:22pm PST
Re: Iraq Crap by Zebco Fuckface 01/31/2003, 6:22pm PST
Re: Iraq Crap by Mischief Maker 02/01/2003, 11:24am PST
Re: Iraq Crap by Zebco Fuckface 02/01/2003, 7:28pm PST
Re: Iraq Crap by Zseni 01/31/2003, 7:08pm PST
Re: Iraq Crap by Jhoh Creexul 01/31/2003, 7:44pm PST
Re: Iraq Crap by Cyrris 01/31/2003, 11:41pm PST
Re: Iraq Crap by Zseni 02/01/2003, 12:44am PST
Jesus by Aslaphappyjappywithacrappypappy 02/01/2003, 12:43am PST
You look fast if I look smart. by Zseni 02/01/2003, 12:57am PST
Re: You look fast if I look smart. by Zebco Fuckface 02/01/2003, 4:01am PST
Ka-BOOM! by Mischief Maker 02/01/2003, 10:50am PST
See, this is where you're an idiot by I need clarification 02/01/2003, 10:58pm PST
Re: See, this is where you're an idiot by Zebco Fuckface 02/03/2003, 4:13am PST
On the topic of fantasy.... by Cyrris 01/31/2003, 7:08pm PST
Re: On the topic of fantasy.... by Zebco Fuckface 01/31/2003, 7:36pm PST
Re: On the topic of fantasy.... by Cyrris 01/31/2003, 11:14pm PST
Re: On the topic of fantasy.... by Zebco Fuckface 02/01/2003, 4:02am PST
Re: On the topic of fantasy.... by Cyrris 02/01/2003, 9:05pm PST
Humanitarian invasions are libertarian? Who knew? N/T NT by Zebco Fuckface 02/03/2003, 4:14am PST
Check yourself BEFORE you wreck yourself by Senor Barborito 01/31/2003, 7:42pm PST
Re: Check yourself BEFORE you wreck yourself by Battlefield 1040EZ 01/31/2003, 10:52pm PST
Re: Check yourself BEFORE you wreck yourself by Jhoh Creexul 02/01/2003, 12:15am PST
Am I the only one who missed the flight to Cloud Nine? by Cyrris 01/31/2003, 11:33pm PST
Re: Am I the only one who missed the flight to Cloud Nine? by Zebco Fuckface 02/01/2003, 4:04am PST
Re: Am I the only one who missed the flight to Cloud Nine? by Senor Barborito 02/01/2003, 9:08pm PST
Re: Am I the only one who missed the flight to Cloud Nine? by Cyrris 02/01/2003, 10:01pm PST
Re: Am I the only one who missed the flight to Cloud Nine? by Senor Barborito 02/01/2003, 10:29pm PST
Re: Am I the only one who missed the flight to Cloud Nine? by Cyrris 02/02/2003, 2:44am PST
Sadly Cyrris you were right the first time. Probably the only time BTW by The Viking Portable Library: Hume 02/02/2003, 8:35pm PST
Re: Sadly Cyrris you were right the first time. Probably the only time BTW by Zebco Fuckface 02/03/2003, 4:21am PST
Re: Am I the only one who missed the flight to Cloud Nine? by Zebco Fuckface 02/03/2003, 4:19am PST
Actually you're completely wrong by Senor Barborito 02/03/2003, 8:17am PST
Re: Actually you're completely wrong by Zebco Fuckface 02/04/2003, 2:16pm PST
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